Expert elicitation and structured judgment methods provide a systematic framework for quantifying uncertainty in fields where empirical data are sparse or ambiguous. By rigorously collating, ...

Forecasting epidemics of infectious diseases is notoriously hard, but the potential value to society for cracking that scientific nut is tremendous. Now a new approach is on the scene. The traditional ...

This article resulted from our participation in the session on the “role of expert opinion and judgment in statistical inference” at the October 2017 ASA Symposium on Statistical Inference. We present ...

An expert witness is not supposed to pick a desired result and then reverse engineer inputs and methods that reach that result. As the Ninth Circuit observed 30 years ago, “[c]oming to a firm ...

You might not have heard of expert systems, but they’re already in use in many fields including fault diagnosis, finance, and medicine. In artificial intelligence (AI), an expert system is a computer ...

A central tenet of toxicology is that “the dose makes the poison.” Every chemical is toxic if enough of it is consumed, and every chemical has some dose – even if miniscule – at which it poses no ...