Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

Inverted yield curves happen when bonds with shorter maturity periods have higher yields than bonds with longer maturity periods. Under normal circumstances, it’s the other way around. Since ...

In last week's commentary we spoke about the big bounce of the S&P 500 (SPY) that got us back in the mix of all the key trend lines (50/100/200 day moving averages). And likely we would be stuck in a ...

Learn to create a yield curve in Excel and understand its implications for interest rate forecasting. Follow our simple guide ...

Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

Analysts and investors began to brace for a souring economic environment as the 10-year Treasury yield fell below that of a 3 ...

As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...